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Philippines. Following the April & May fall, 2020 sales are projected to 330k

Philippines Vehicles Market is in the worst quarter of its history and after April sales were reported close to zero, May sales declined over 80% due to the slow dealers and local plant re-start after the prolonged shutdown, due to covid19 counteraction decided by the government. Our forecast for the 2020 at 330k units is down 21%Post Covid19 Market TrendOn March 9, 2020, the Philippines President, Rodrigo Duterte, declared a state of public health emergency, as a response to the virus spread. Moreover, on March 12, a partial lockdown was issued on Metro Manila then expanded on March 16, placing the entirety of Luzon under a total lockdown and then all the country entered in a full lockdown, for April with partial re-opening started from the first decade of May.In March new vehicles sales were only 14.517 (-62.9%) ending the first quarter with 75.263 sales (-27.3%).In April sales were reported to be near zero, as all plants and dealerships were shutdown.In May the activity re-started, quite slow and in selected regions, with the metropolitan area of Manila restarting from the 16th. Of course, there was not customer rush to purchase a new car and the most of vehicles delivered in May have been booked before March, with poor volume reported for the month. Indeed, preliminary data accreditate the month of only 6k sales, down 81% from last year.The Outlook for the rest of the year is negative. Our projection for the full year is to 330.000 sales, down 21.2%, assuming a recovery after September.Medium term market directionPhilippines vehicles market in the last decade boomed resulting one of the top 3 fastest-growing markets in the World. Recently, total vehicles sales grew up from 170.827 in 2012 to a record of 483.734 in 2017. Then the winds changed.In 2018, after thirteen consecutive years of growth, the introduction of a new tax (called “TRAIN”) pushed up the price for all vehicles (and fuel), but pickups and van, hitting the market and altering the competitive landscape and sales fell down 11.8% at 413.216.In 2019 the industry has progressively digested the effect of TRAIN and total vehicles sales have been 418.352, up 3.3%.The expectations for the 2020 were not positive with a negative outlook – before the Covid19 crisis –  due to the lower economic growth, as was confirmed by the first two months figures, with sales declining 6.2%Tables with sales figuresIn the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 ModelsThis content is for members only. Visit the site and log in/register to read.

Peru 2020. Vehicles market starts growing again (+20.3%), meanwhile Mitsubishi plummets by 64.1%
Wednesday November 18, 2020

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Too many highlights from Niall Ferguson’s The Ascent of Money
Monday September 28, 2020

I read this book more than 5 years ago and recently decided to revisit my Kindle highlights from it. In those 5 years, Niall has updated the book and released a 10th anniversary edition which has a chapter on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. (it seems he caught the bug, from his son! 🙂 I might buy […]

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